Discussion Leaders: Patti Anderson and Catriona Rogers

Notes by Andrea Soltysik

1. What did you learn from the report?

• Ecosystems currently are under a lot of stress. Discussing land use changes may help people understand the complexity of these relationships.
• Surprise: an increase in winter air temperature, but a decrease in spring, summer, and fall water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay. What are implications for ecosystems?

2. What is problematic in the report?

• There may be an unbalanced emphasis on aquatic animals.
• Focus on forestry rather than on forests; expand the discussion of riparian forests.
• Map the carrying capacity of ecosystems (e.g., terrestrial forests, rivers, and streams).
• GIS maps of the region’s rare and endangered species and vulnerable habitats (rather than a table of state levels) will be clearer to stakeholders.
• A case study of a specific species could show ecosystem interdependency (how climate change will affect one specie and how a domino effect may occur). This also could show the relationship of the ecosystems to one another.
• The preface suggests prevention of climate change will help decrease the region’s vulnerability. Address this for all greenhouse gases, or decide on clearer message about how to reduce vulnerability.
• What is the point of climate forecasting unless predictions are made?
• Emphasize the cross-cutting connections between the coastal zones and ecosystems, and expand the connection between forestry and ecosystems.
• Different aspects of ecosystems are important to different stakeholders. Use two-way exchange of information (researchers to stakeholders & stakeholders to researchers).
• A case study could show the growth of an ecosystem without human interaction. E.g., an area with radioactivity that has been abandoned, but has seen a rebound in the ecosystem.
• More on publication of J. Price’s work on bird species; map would help. Are there no positives? Caution about short period for his study.
• More graphics, e.g., land use changes and road density throughout the century (1900, 1950, present, 2030) could illustrate landscape fragmentation, etc.
• Include the percentage of non-native species and how they are/have affected native systems; need models to show how invasive species might displace native species.
• Identify a specialist in each sector to explain the impact on an ecosystem if a specific change occurred
• Compare similar ecosystems: Estuaries vs. Coastal zones. Non-tidal vs. Riparian.
• Expand ecosystems covered to include the barrier islands, rivers, alpine systems, and managed ecosystems (i.e. parks)
• Provide transitions between sector topics. Starting with ecosystems would allow an introduction to the remaining sections. Each sector can then include the details. Ecosystems can also be used for the summary since all other areas are a part of ecosystems
• Since water is common to all sectors, use the flow of water through the region as the transition through chapters.
• Natural variation and stresses will make it difficult to detect impacts from climate change.

3. What next?

• The Climate Research draft should be ready May 12. It includes the communities and ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic, and connection between coastal and inland ecosystems.
• Analyze the historical record of the climate changes to look for ‘surprise’ trends.
• Due to the complexity of these systems, high quality, long-term monitoring is necessary to show how climate change will affect each area individually. We need to find the information on how each ecosystem works. Organized monitoring is needed to explain the indicators and their functions.
• The physiological response differs among species, this may make a difference for ecosystem response when monitoring for CO₂ impacts.
• Graphics should answer the question ‘what is being measured and how will it be monitored.’ Possibly include: biodiversity, abundance of key species, links between the natural variability of an area in relation to the variability due to climate change.
• Show a species’ function in an ecosystem and try to measure this. Make a connection between their function and an economic value. The value of a ‘good’ is more than its commercial value. Example: Oysters filter water, if their numbers decrease, the water will be more polluted. Use more case studies to value the ecosystems.

4. Additional comments may be sent to Catriona Rogers at rogers.catriona@epamail.epa.gov.