Climate Variation and Change for the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment

Jason Allard, Robert Crane, Brent Yarnal
The Pennsylvania State University

Henry Walker
EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Atlantic Ecology Division

Data

• Monthly Precipitation data from the UKMO/Hadley and the Canadian Climate Center Models

• The Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) and the Potomac River Basin (PRB)
• Time Series
• Average Monthly Precipitation during three time periods (i.e., 1984-1993, 2025-2034, and 2090-2099)

• Maps depicting the spatial distribution of average annual precipitation for the three time slices over the entire Mid-Atlantic Region
• Time series analyses for the Potomac and Susquehanna River Basins from the Canadian Climate Center and UKMO/Hadley Models
• Comparisons of average monthly precipitation for the Potomac and Susquehanna River Basins among the three time slices
• Comparisons of average variability in monthly precipitation for the Potomac and Susquehanna River Basins among the three time slices

Figures

Results

• Both models predict an increase in precipitation in the future for the Potomac and Susquehanna River Basins, with the Susquehanna River Basin having the largest increase in precipitation
• According to the UKMO/Hadley Model, the largest increases in precipitation for both River Basins occur during the summer months, although increases in precipitation occur throughout the year
• According to the Canadian Climate Center Model, no single season has the largest increase in precipitation for either River Basin
• Both climate models predict that the Potomac River Basin will be more variable than the Susquehanna River Basin
• Both climate models generally predict more variability during the summer months in the Potomac and Susquehanna River Basins
• Neither climate model provides a clear indication as to the direction of variability in the future