Climate Change & Extreme Events

Discussion led by Brent Yarnal (Penn State) and Dan Leathers (Delaware State Climatologist)

• What-if scenarios:
  -  Floods were more frequent?
  -  Rain-on-snow floods
  -  Thunderstorm flash floods
  -  Tropical storm floods
  -  Blizzards more frequent?
  -  Snowfall amounts greater?
  -  Tornadoes become more frequent?

• Recent "what-if" analogies:
  -  Rain-on-snow floods (e.g., January 1996)
  -  Flash floods (e.g., summer 1996)
  -  Tropical storm floods (e.g., Tropical storm Fran, September 1996)
  -  Blizzards (e.g., Superstorm, March 1993)
  -  Snowfall (e.g., winters 1992-1993, 1993-1994, and 1995-1996)
  -  Tornadoes (e.g., July 19, 1996)

• Who needs to be involved?
  -  Businesses affected by severe storms
  -  Government organizations affected by severe storms
  -  Non-governmental organizations affected by severe storms
  -  Socio-economic groups affected by severe storms

• For examples:
  1) Energy generation/electric utilities
  2) Emergency management
  3) Insurance/finance, policy holders
  4) Fisheries, forestry, recreation
  5) Heating and cooling contractors
  6) Distribution network
  7) Media
  8) Health care
  9) Construction industries that support infrastructure
  10) Tourism
  11) Water resources
  12) Coal industry (affected by severe weather, but will also be affected by "cure" of climate change
  13) Financial services
  14) Transportation

• For other groups:
  1) Affects people as individuals.
  -  Businesses know that change, so they will adapt more easily than individuals.
  -  Effects may be more severe on individuals than on businesses.
  -  Avoid presenting inaccurate information, which could lead the public to dismiss climate change.

• What do they need to know?
  1) Spatial data
  2) Probability of threshold events (extreme events), and potential changes in these probabilities
  3) Events that will affect transportation
  4) Need certainty/Real examples
  -  Disseminate knowledge to public, but be careful not to "cry wolf".
  -  Credibility is necessary. Translate information; e.g relate severe storms to something people can understand.
  -  The historical climate record can be used to help people relate to future climate scenarios
  -  Inform the public of all possible effects of climate change, not just negative effects.

• How should this information be distributed?
  -  Radio & Television
  -  Print media
  -  World Wide Web
  -  Public speakers
  -  Churches and schools
  -  Teach current generation of school children
  -  Need to know what the message is before worrying about how to distribute it
  -  Different media will be needed for different groups, and for different purposes (e.g., radio and television are good for notifying the public of a heat wave).
  -  There is the danger that media over-exposure could de-sensitize the public.

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