(Summarized by Cindy Wang and Richard Caplan)

Panel:

Chair - Eric Barron, Penn State
Vivien Gornitz, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Bruce Richards, Center for Inland Bays
Henry (Hal) Walker, EPA National Health and Environmental Effects Research Lab

Eric Barron summarized the approach planned by the Coastal Working Group component of MARA.  To help prioritize the issues, the group constructed a matrix of climate-induced physical changes and major impact areas.  Physical changes of particular importance to the coast include sea level rise, changes in the path, intensity and variability of storms, salt-water intrusion, and temperature and precipitation changes. Potential impact areas include ecosystems, geomorphology, institutional frameworks and management, commercial fisheries and navigation, coastal development and use such as recreation, urban regions, and risk and the insurance sector.  The following priority areas were identified: 

1. Physical change cross-cut:  assessment of the impact of severe storms on each impact area
2. Impact area cross-cut:  ecosystem response to sea level rise, storms, and climate change
3. Impact area cross-cut:  development and coastal issues for sea level, storms and climate change

The group also identified the most important gaps in expertise.  Their planned approach is to first develop scenario maps based on climate data.  These maps will then be provided to appropriate experts who will be asked to give their opinion of risk and vulnerability in the priority areas specified above.

Vivien Gornitz presented three scenarios of climate change and three scenarios of sea level rise for the Metro-East Coast region, based on projecting trends in historical data. For climate, the "low" scenario represents a linear extrapolation of historic climate trends, the "medium" scenario assumes a 1%/year increase in CO₂, and the "high" scenario assumes a continuation of current trends of economic growth and fossil fuel consumption. Her data focus on the impact on New York City, partly because climate data are available for this area dating back to 1851. Scenarios of sea level rise were also presented. The point was made that, due to subsidence, significant sea level rise is occurring even in the absence of climate change. When climate and sea level scenarios were paired, the "high" scenario predicts a two-degree increase in global temperature in 2030, and a corresponding 15 cm global sea level rise. Under the "low" scenario, the increase in temperature was a fraction of a degree, with a 5 cm sea level rise. Under the high scenario, to give a concrete example, portions of Wall Street and nearly all of FDR Drive and West Street would be under water. The impact from storms will be more immediate than that from sea level rise, and the flood recurrence interval will decrease as sea level rises. Increased development along the East Coast will create a greater potential for damages from climate-related changes.

Delaware produces the largest number of chickens per capita in the United States, and the impact of this industry on coastal water quality is substantial. Richards described the eutrophication of Delaware's coastal waters, caused primarily by elevated amounts of nitrogen and phosphorous in runoff. Delaware's inland bay, like most, is small and poorly flushed. So the balance between freshwater and seawater can fluctuate substantially, exacerbating nutrient enrichment, habitat loss, and species loss. The Center for Inland Bays carefully monitors issues such as the ulva bloom last year, known to be driven by excess nitrogen and phosphorous, and Phisteria, because of its link to animal agriculture. The Center also works to preserve and restore aquatic, upland, and wetland habitat. Their web site, which is regularly updated with the CIB newsletter and contains other important information, is located at www.udel.edu/CIB.

An overview was provided of the current conditions and stresses in the Mid-Atlantic region, how they will be affected by climate change and climate variability, and what can and should be done. The Lab's incorporation of technology from the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Project (EMAP), is leading to a better understanding of the Mid-Atlantic region's current ecological condition. An emphasis on the historical record provides credibility from the stakeholder perspective. Anthropogenic activities, resulting in nutrient loading, are a particular concern. In addition, population pressures and changes in land use must be a major factor in any analysis of current conditions. Changes in climate, particularly increased precipitation and severity of storms, could exacerbate problems associated with coastal zone development and coastal eutrophication. Some of the adaptation strategies proposed to deal with these impacts include better land use planning, point and non-point source controls on nutrient loading, and an effort to restore and protect natural landscape sinks for nutrients.